Session D5: Advancing in Environmental Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Emerging Tools and Challenges

Chairs: Jan Kwakkel, Patrick Reed, Rob Lempert.

Schedule

Tueday July 11th
Time Title Authors Room Moderator(s)
10:30-10:50 Water resources decision support under deep uncertainty: a classification of model-based frameworks and challenges for scenario discovery Jonathan Herman, Patrick Reed, Harrison Zeff and Greg Characklis B122/123 Jan Kwakkel
10:50-11:10 CO2 emissions scenarios from a database of diverse socio-economic pathways Celine Guivarch, Julie Rozenberg and Vanessa Schweizer B122/123
11:10-11:30 Informing Adaptive Strategies for the Colorado Basin David Groves, Robert Lempert, Jordan Fischbach and Evan Bloom B122/123
11:30-11:50 Model requirements for decision support under uncertainty in a data scarce dynamic deltas Marjolijn Haasnoot, Willem van Deursen, Jan Kwakkel and Hans Middelkoop B122/123
14:30-14:50 A Demonstration of Many Objective Robust Decision Making using OpenMORDM David Hadka, Jonathan Herman, Patrick Reed and Klaus Keller B122/123 Rob Lempert
14:50-15:10 The Exploratory Modeling Workbench An open source toolkit for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and (multi-objective) robust decision making Jan Kwakkel B122/123
15:10-15:30 A Novel Sampling Approach for Efficient and Robust Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models Razi Sheikholeslami and Saman Razavi B122/123
15:30-15:50 Iterative discovery: a method for discovering feasible interventions and targets conjointly using uncertainty visualisations Baihua Fu, Joseph Guillaume and Tony Jakeman B122/123
16:30-16:50 Improving Multi-Objective Management of Water Quality Tipping Points: Revisiting the Classical Shallow Lake Problem Julianne Quinn, Patrick Reed and Klaus Keller B122/123 Marjolijn Haasnoot
16:50-17:10 Comparing state-of-the-art multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for water allocation under different climate scenarios Dan Yan, Fulco Ludwig, Heqing Huang and Saskia Werners B122/123
17:10-17:30 Using multi-objective optimization to support urban planning Jonas Schwaab, Kalyanmoy Deb, Erik Goodman, Maarten van Strien, Sven Lautenbach and Adrienne Grêt-Regamey B122/123
17:30-17:50 Identifying efficient and robust water supply investments for East England Evgenii Matrosov and Julien Harou B122/123
Wednesday July 13th
Time Title Authors Room Chair(s)
8:30-8:50 Agro-ecosystem adaptation to climate change – How does crop model uncertainty affect the choice of optimum adaptation responses? Annelie Holzkämper, Tommy Klein, Ralf Seppelt and Jürg Fuhrer B122/123 Jan Kwakkel
8:50-9:10 Build-in Uncertainty in Agent-Based Model and Its Impact on Social-Ecological System Decision-Making under Deep uncertainty Han Su, Xiao Liu and Yong Liu B122/123
9:10-9:30 Understanding alternatives for the Swiss electricity sector transition under deep uncertainty Philip Berntsen and Evelina Trutnevyte B122/123
9:30-9:50 Investing in adaptation: flood risk and real option application in Bilbao Luis M. Abadie, Elisa Sainz de Murieta and Ibon Galarraga B122/123