Session B5: Managing Uncertainty

Chairs: Joseph Guillaume, Tony Jakeman, Holger Maier, Jiri Nossent, Evelina Trutnevyte.

Schedule

Monday July 11th
Time Title Authors Room Moderator(s)
8:30-8:50 How modellers frame uncertainty in scientific publications: review and reflections Joseph Guillaume, Casey Helgeson, Sondoss Elsawah, Tony Jakeman and Matti Kummu C002 Evelina Trutnevyte
8:50-9:10 A New Framework for Global Sensitivity Analysis for Environmental Modelling Saman Razavi, Hoshin Gupta, Amin Haghnegahdar and Razi Sheikholeslami C002
9:10-9:30 Evaluating model structure uncertainty by a new approach to sensitivity analysis utilizing hydrological signatures Jiri Nossent, Mahyar Shafii and Willy Bauwens C002
9:30-9:50 Sobol’ sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee colonies Carmen Kuan, Robert Curry, Gloria Degrandi-Hoffman, Kris Garber, Andrew Kanarek, Marcia Snyder and Tom Purucker C002
9:50-10:10 Uncertainty and resilience assessment of critical infrastructures: an airport case study Carlo Giupponi, Juliana Bernhofer and Vahid Mojtahed C002
10:30-10:50 New approach to interactive use of energy system models for policy support Evelina Trutnevyte and Philip Berntsen C002 Joseph Guillaume
10:50-11:10 Context scenarios: understanding societal context uncertainty in environmental modeling Hannah Kosow, Sigrid Prehofer and Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle C002
11:10-11:30 Futures of resilience and mitigation – Combining stakeholder knowledge, statistical analysis and integrated modelling to better understand and reduce disaster risk Graeme Riddell, Hedwig van Delden, Holger Maier, Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy C002
11:30-11:50 Using scenario analysis to investigate uncertainty in water resource management Baihua Fu, Joseph Guillaume, Michael Asher and Anthony Jakeman C002
14:30-14:50 The stability and ecophysiological realism of calibrated parameters in a detailed vegetation model (WAVES) Willem Vervoort, Joseph Henry, Mana Gharun and Mark Adams C002 Jiri Nossent
14:50-15:10 Land use change and agricultural production of a Central European region expected until 2050 Joerg Priess, Christian Hoyer, Greta Jäckel, Sebastian Pomm, Eva Lang and Christian Schweitzer C002
15:10-15:30 Including discharge uncertainties into an adaptable objective function for rainfall - runoff model calibration and evaluation Audrey Douinot, Hélène Roux and Denis Dartus C002
15:30-15:50 Calibration of Hydrological Model in Data Scarce Tropical Basin Tadesse Alemayehu, Ann van Griensven, Willy Bauwens and Hoshin Gupta C002
15:50-16:10 Uncertainties in estimating design droughts Devanmini Halwatura, Alex Lechner, Neil McIntyre and Sven Arnold C002
16:30-16:50 How weather uncertainty impacts the predicted yield in an agricultural decision support tool? Amélie Pinet, Romain Bourget, Pierre Moreau, Nathalie Saint-Geours, Julia Radoszycki and Philippe Stoop C002 Tony Jakeman
16:50-17:10 Uncertainty Analysis toward confidence limits to hydraulic state predictions in water distribution networks Mathias Braun, Olivier Piller, Angelo Iollo, Iraj Mortazavi and Jochen Deuerlein C002
17:10-17:30 Groundwater recharge and associated uncertainty estimation combining multi-method and multi-scale approaches Sandra Lanini and Yvan Caballero C002
17:30-17:50 Effects of climate data aggregation on regional net primary production modelling Matthias Kuhnert, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, Pete Smith, Holger Hoffmann, Marcel van Oijen, Julie Constantin, Elsa Coucheney, Rene Dechow, Henrik Eckersten, Thomas Gaiser, Balász Grosz, Edwin Haas, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Ralf Kiese, Steffen Klatt, Elisabet Lewan, Claas Nendel, Helene Raynal, Carmen Sosa, Xenia Specka, Edmar Teixeira, Enli Wang, Lutz Weihermüller, Gang Zhao, Zhigan Zhao, Stephen Ogle and Frank Ewert C002