The components of global environment are estimated by means of models. Many different models are possible for any given component, and no criterion exists to pick one model over another. Instead, the models form an ensemble, which is assumed to be a consistent estimator of a given component -- that is, to be converging to the quantities being estimated as the number of models grows. Is this assumption close to reality? Are confidence intervals shrinking? To answer this question we need regular checks of model consistency based on well-agreed methodology and empowered by information technologies. The purpose of the session is to discuss the methodology of this sort and to define web-based services needed for its efficient implementation.
Thursday 10 | ||||
Time | Title | Authors | Place | |
9:30 - 9:50 | 'A Methodology for Building Credible Models for Policy Evaluation' | C. A. Aumann | A6101 | |
9:50 - 10:10 | 'Evaluating consistency of biosphere models: software tools for a web-based service' | G. A. Alexandrov and T. Matsunaga | A6101 | |
10:10 - 10:30 | 'The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Protocol and Evaluation Metrics for Global Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Models' | F.M. Hoffman, J.T. Randerson, I.Y. Fung, P.E. Thornton, Y.-H. Lee, C.C. Covey, G.B. Bonan and S.W. Running | A6101 | |
10:30 - 10:50 | 'Reducing Uncertainty in Ecological Niche Models with ANN Ensembles' | A. P. Kirilenko and R. S. Hanley | A6101 | |
11:20 - 11:40 | 'Towards model evaluation using Self-Organizing Maps' | M. Herbst and M.C. Casper | A6101 | |
11:40 - 12:00 | 'A Software Component for Model Output Evaluation' | G. Bellocchia, M. Donatellia, M. Acutisb, E. Habyarimanaa | A6101 | |
12:00 - 12:20 | 'Using SOAP to Develop Software for Air Trajectory Calculation' | J. Zeng, T. Matsunaga and H. Mukai | A6101 | |
12:20 - 12:40 | 'Web Components for Development of Computational Methods: Example with Fuzzy' | G. Bellocchi, F. Foscarini, M. Canonico and G. Van den Eede | A6101 | |
12:40 - 13:00 | 'What is the next? - General discussion' | A6101 |