W11: Scenario Development and Analysis For Integrated Environmental Assessment Studies

Organizers: Thorsten Wagener (Pennsylvania State University), Yuqiong Liu (SAHRA/University of Arizona), Steve Stewart (SAHRA/University of Arizona), Holly Hartmann (CLIMAS/SAHRA)

Goals:

This workshop aims at providing a platform to discuss and evaluate the state-of-the-art, establish research needs and suggest promissing directions in scenario development and analysis for integrated environmental assessment.

Background:

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative possible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more complete consideration of possible outcomes and their implications.

The development of strategies for water resources planning and management and the assessment of impacts of potential environmental change are often guided by analyzing multiple future scenarios within an Integrated Modeling (IM) framework, usually driven by forcing derived from global climate models and/or possible future socio-economic changes. The process of scenario development involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes (e.g. urbanization), population growth, economic development, and technological change. These scenarios generally surpass forcing or behavior that has been observed in the past. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts requires complex modeling frameworks that represent environmental and socio-economic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about probabilities of the occurrence of future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, to facilitate transparency of scenario results, and to establish credibility and relevance of the results among them. Hence, for the IA models to be useful for policy making, appropriate scenarios have to be carefully constructed and associated uncertainties propagated into the model outputs have to be understood and quantified. Relevant questions for the workshop include, but are not limited to:

Question:

Go To Workshop Blog


Position Paper

  
T. Wagener, Y. Liu, S. Stewart, H. Hartman and M. Mahmoud Imagine - Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

Invited Speakers (Tuesday, June 11, 14:15 - 15:15)

  
Roger B. Street (Technical Director, UKCIP), Michelle Colley and Richard Westaway (UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford University Centre for the Environment (UKCIP), Oxford, UK (www.ukcip.org.uk)) Climate and Socio-economic Scenarios: Lessons Learned Through Stakeholder Engagement and Use
Larry Winter (Deputy Director, NCAR Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geoscience, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305) Comparing Scenarios Through Model Output
Steven Stewart with Holly Hartmann, Yuqiong Liu, Thorsten Wagener, Mohammed Mahmoud Scenario development for semi-arid regions: a multi-disciplinary example

Participants

  
Thania Rendon, Miquel Sanchez-Marre Multi-Agent systems to simulate scenarios for decision-making in river basin systems
George Leavesley, Jimmie Chew, Roland Viger, Christine Turner, William Romme, Mark Miller, George San Miguel, Neil Cobb, Lisa Floyd-Hanna A Modular Modeling Approach to Integrating Adaptive Modeling Systems with Resource Management in the FRAME Project
Helena Vladich, Alexey Voinov Use of High resolution Lidar Data for Targeting and Prioritization Methodology of Residential Stormwater BMPs
Nikolai Bobylev (not attending) Integrated Environmental Assessment of Urban Underground Infrastructure Development Policies