S11: Modelling and simulating dangerous phenomena for hazard mapping

Organised by Iovine Giulio (CNR-IRPI via Cavour, 6 - 87030 Rende (Cosenza) Italy, E-mail: g.iovine@irpi.cnr.it),

Di Gregorio Salvatore (Department of Mathematics - University of Calabria, 87036 Arcavacata di Rende (Cosenza) Italy, E-mail: dig@unical.it),

Miyamoto Hideaki (Department of Geosystem Engineering - University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan, E-mail: miyamoto@geosys.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp), and

Sheridan Michael (Department of Geology - University at Buffalo, 251 Hemstreet Road - 14052 East Aurora, United States of America, E-mail: mfs@geology.buffalo.edu)

Scope

Several types of dangerous phenomena (e.g. slope movements, lavas and pyroclastic flows, floods, soil erosion, earthquakes, tsunamis, pollution, fires, and spread of infection) pose serious risk to the human environment in many parts of the world. This session deals with new methods of hazard analysis, modelling and mapping of natural phenomena by means of computer-assisted techniques. We invite the submission of contributions on innovative approaches of simulation, as well as on novel methods of model calibration and validation, sensitivity analyses, and examples of hazard mapping. State-of-the-art research in the field of computer-assisted simulation of natural phenomena, and of related hazard mapping techniques, together with a comparative discussion on potential and limits of different modelling approaches, are welcome.

"Complexity" is a fundamental element at the frontier of modern scientific research, especially when considering hazardous natural phenomena. In the past, the distinction between describing phenomena in terms of solvable differential equations marked the difference between highly-predictive and purely-descriptive Science. However, differential equations for complex phenomena mostly lack analytical solutions. Fortunately, approximated numerical methods, commonly based on a discretisation of space-time, are now possible thanks to computer power. These methods have greatly extended the class of problems which can be solved in terms of differential equation systems. However, many problems still are computationally located beyond these methods.

While new computational techniques for the solution of complex differential systems are discovered and refined, innovative numerical methods emerge from alternative computational paradigms, such as cellular automata, neuronal nets, genetic algorithms, etc. Both differential and alternative approaches rely on the dual concept - modelling and simulation. Nowadays, assessing hazard conditions related to complex natural phenomena increasingly takes advantage of computer-assisted simulations. As a consequence, the above mentioned innovative methods (yet not completely standardised) are becoming more prevalent.

Contact

Iovine Giulio - g.iovine@irpi.cnr.it

Schedule

Part 1, Monday 10:30-12:30.

Oral Session.

Chairman: Prof. Michael F. Sheridan

10:30. Optimal Regional Partitioning For Wildfire Risk Characterization. Francesco Gaetani

10:45. Modeling Debris Flows With Two-Fluid Models - The TITAN-DF Toolkit. Michael Sheridan

11:00. Stochastic Simulation of Daily Spatial Rainfall For Regional Flood Risk Assessment. Kim-Seong Tan

11:15. Coupling Process Models And Probabilistic Approaches For Flood Hazard Assessment. Bruno Merz

11:30. Logisnet: A Tool For Multimethod, Multilayer Slope Stability Analysis. Gabriel Legorreta Paulin

11:45. Modelling Lava Flow To Assess Hazard On Mount Etna (Italy). From Geological Data To A Preliminary Hazard Map. Gianluca Groppelli

12:00. Surface Flows Modelling: Cellular Automata Simulations of Lava Flows, Debris Flows And Pyroclastic Flows. William Spataro

12:15. Questions and general discussion

Part 2, Tuesday 9:45-11:00.

Oral Session (continued)

9:45. Near Real-Time Detection And Monitoring of Floods: ASE Flood Sensorweb. Felipe Ip

Poster Session

Chairman: Prof. S. Di Gregorio

10:00 - 11:00.

The integrated model network ITE2M: model set-up and assessment of agricultural land use and management options. Mr Wolfgang Reiher

A Model for the Simulation of Forest Fire Dynamics Using Cellular Automata. William Spataro

An Integrated Environmental Decisional Support System Framework Using Earth Observation, Cellular Automata And Multi-Agent System. Stefano De Luca

An Operational Scheme For Dynamic Resource Management in Case of Natural Disaster Events. Francesco Gaetani

Environmental Cartographic Models for the Region of Bregare Paleoseismic Phenomena, Moesian Platform (Bulgaria). Dora Angelova

MOIRA-PLUS: A Decision Support System for the Management of Complex Fresh Water Ecosystems Contaminated by Radionuclides and Heavy Metals. Luigi Monte (not attending)

Use of Space Technology for Natural Disaster Management. Mohamad Rukieh

Modeling Soil Depth for Distributed Applications. Filippo Catani

Reliability of Landslide Hazard Mapping Using Neural Networks In An Unstable Area of Sardinia (Italy). Giulio Barbieri

Modelling The Role Of Vegetation In Slope Stability. Federico Preti

Modelling Rainfall-Triggered Landslides Along Reactivated Slip Surfaces. Michele Calvello (not attending)

High Precision GPS Satellite Monitoring Project Applied To The Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformations In San Lucido (Calabria Region - Southern Italy). Alessandro Guerricchio